Markets have largely learned to downplay conflict-driven oil shocks, with crude prices often recovering quickly after an initial pop. But analysts say the most recent Iran strikes could be different.

Oil prices have surged by roughly 15% since the US and Israel began a major airstrike campaign against Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and provoking a violent and chaotic response from Iran that has engulfed the Middle East.

Futures tied to Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) jumped more than 9% Tuesday morning before paring gains.

It's unclear whether oil futures will continue to rise. In past conflicts, such as the 12-day war last year between Israel and Iran, prices jumped but fell back down to their previous levels within days. But unlike past flare-ups, the current escalation has already triggered concrete disruptions in shipping and insurance markets, tightening flows even before any confirmed physical damage to major oil infrastructure.

"Recent conflicts have generated a more muted response in oil prices, refining margins, and energy equities," Mizuho equity analyst Nitin Kumar said in a client note published on Monday. "But this time may be different."

Notably, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and has warned it would fire on any vessel attempting to transit the vital shipping route. Video footage published by Al Jazeera on Monday afternoon showed an oil tanker ablaze in the strait.

The move from the Iranian military marks a materially different phase in the conflict. Attacks such as these have a "big psychological impact on the market," Ben Cahill, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told Yahoo Finance.

'A reassessment of geopolitical risk'

While Iran's initial retaliation focused primarily on military assets and strategic targets, recent strikes have increasingly impacted energy-linked facilities across the Gulf, leading Saudi Arabia to shut down its largest refinery and Qatar to halt liquid natural gas (LNG) production.

The IRGC's latest position — attempting a full closure of the strait, something Iran has never successfully enforced, and threatening to fire on vessels that cross — further expands the risk premium that has already brought tanker traffic through the waterway to a near standstill. Five vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have now been struck, according to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency.

Analysts said markets are no longer pricing in just geopolitical risk but also the possibility of a sustained disruption to global energy trade. In a note published Sunday, JPMorgan said its base-case assumption that an unprecedented disruption would remain "improbable" had failed after vessel transit through the strait fell to near zero for the first time in its modern history.